AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures are showing gains of 5 1/2 to 6 cents to start the week, more than erasing Friday losses. The USDA reported export shipments of 24.175 mbu for the week of October 19. That was nearly twice as much as the previous week and 11.39% larger than the same week last year. Expectations for this afternoon’s Crop Progress are showing the corn harvest around 40-45% complete vs. last week’s 28%. The CFTC Commitment of Traders report on Friday afternoon showed spec traders adding another 7,747 contracts to their net short position during the week that ended 10/17. Their net position on that date totaled -170,684 contracts in corn futures and options.

Dec 17 Corn is at $3.50 1/2, up 6 cents,

Mar 18 Corn is at $3.64 1/4, up 5 3/4 cents,

May 18 Corn is at $3.72 3/4, up 5 1/2 cents

Jul 18 Corn is at $3.80 1/4, up 5 1/2 cents

Soybeans

Soybean futures are currently 2 1/2 cents higher in most front months on Monday. December meal is down 50 cents/ton, with nearby bean oil 39 points higher. This morning’s USDA Export Inspections report indicated shipments at a marketing year high of 94.153 mbu. That is an increase of 43.48% over the previous week but lagging last year by 9.24%. Analysts are expecting the US soybean harvest to pick up closer to the average at 65-68% complete. The weekly COT report had spec traders adding another 37,186 contracts to their net long position in soybean futures and options. Their net position on Tuesday was net long 68,168 contracts. Ag Rural estimates that Brazil’s 2017/18 soybean crop is 20% planted vs. the average of 19%. The southern states have had more rain and are ahead of normal planting progress, but Mato Grosso still trails.

Nov 17 Soybeans are at $9.81 1/4, up 2 1/2 cents,

Jan 18 Soybeans are at $9.91 3/4, up 2 1/2 cents,

Mar 18 Soybeans are at $10.01 3/4, up 2 1/2 cents,

May 18 Soybeans are at $10.11, up 2 1/2 cents,

Dec 17 Soybean Meal is at $316.60, down $0.50

Dec 17 Soybean Oil is at $34.55, up $0.39

Wheat

Wheat futures are mostly 1 to 5 1/2 cents higher in most MGE wheat contracts, as CBT and KC are 7 to 9 1/4 cents in the green. All wheat exports during the week of October 19 fell to just 6.237 mbu. That was slightly better than half of the previous week’s inspections and 36.25% lower than the same week last year. Managed money spec funds in KC wheat futures and options went 5,505 contracts more bearish last week. They went home net short 4,662 contracts on October 17. In Chicago wheat futures and options, they increased the size of their CFTC net short position another 9,963 contracts to -77,692. Iraq purchased 50,000 MT of US wheat over the weekend.

Dec 17 CBOT Wheat is at $4.35 1/4, up 9 1/4 cents,

Dec 17 KCBT Wheat is at $4.32, up 9 1/4 cents,

Dec 17 MGEX Wheat is at $6.16 3/4, up 5 1/2 cents

Cattle

Live cattle futures are mixed on Monday, with nearby Oct down just 2.5 cents after gapping down on the open. Feeder cattle futures are 42.5 to 97.5 cents in the red. The CME feeder cattle index was 29 cents lower at $154.79 on October 19.There were 32 deliveries vs. October cattle futures over the weekend, with RJO clients the major players. Wholesale beef prices were mixed in Monday morning report. Choice was down 54 cents at $199.32, with select boxes 71 cents higher at $191.85. Weekly FI cattle slaughter was estimated at 632,000 head last week, about 10,000 larger than the previous week and 30,000 head above the same week last year. Cash trade ended last week at $111, steady with the previous week. Friday afternoon’s Cattle on Feed report showed on feed numbers 5.43% larger than last October 1 at 10.813 million head. That came from larger than expected placements at 2.15 million head, 13.46% above last September and September marketings at 2.94% greater than last year at 1.783 million head.

Oct 17 Cattle are at $111.650, down $0.025,

Dec 17 Cattle are at $116.750, up $0.150,

Feb 18 Cattle are at $121.200, down $0.075,

Oct 17 Feeder Cattle are at $153.200, down $0.425

Nov 17 Feeder Cattle are at $152.100, down $0.975

Jan 18 Feeder Cattle are at $150.500, down $0.825

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures are trading 2.5 to 77.5 cents lower in the nearby contracts at midday. The CME Lean Hog Index for 10/19 jumped another 87 cents over the previous day at $64.21. The national base hog was down a penny at $64.45 in the Monday morning report. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was 19 cents lower in this morning’s report at $75.31. The butt, rib, and belly were all reported higher, with the picnic down $2.75. Estimated FI hog slaughter last week was 31,000 head fewer than the previous week at 2,485,000 head. That was 39,000 smaller than the same week in 2016. The USDA Cold Storage report for the end of September stocks will be released later this afternoon.

Dec 17 Hogs are at $64.075, down $0.775,

Feb 18 Hogs are at $68.875, down $0.225

Apr 18 Hogs are at $72.875, down $0.025

Cotton

Cotton futures are posting sharp gains of 171 to 253 points on short covering to start the week. The Adjusted World Price (AWP) was updated to 59.73 cents/lb, down 71 points from the previous week. The Cotlook A index for October 20 was down 25 points from the previous day at 77.60 cents/lb. The Friday night Commitment of Traders report showed the managed money spec funds again trimming the net long position in cotton futures/options. They were still net long 48,682 lots on October 17.

Dec 17 Cotton is at 69.41, up 253 points,

Mar 18 Cotton is at 68.95, up 218 points

May 18 Cotton is at 69.79, up 203 points

Jul 18 Cotton is at 70.200, up 171 points


Market Commentary provided by:

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