OMC Statement at 1:00 and Press Conference at 1:30

September 18, 2019


The main event today is the 1:00 central time Federal Open Market Committee statement and Fed Chair Powells 1:30 press conference.

Housing starts beat the market expectation by a wide margin in August and building permits continued to increase at a strong pace.

Housing starts in August rose 12.3% to 1.364 million, the strongest annual rate of home construction since June 2007, compared to analysts'forecastfor an increase of 4.5% to 1.251 million. Building permits in August increased 7.7% to1.419 million when 1.300 million were anticipated.

My view remains that the global reflation scenario is on track and easier credit conditions from most of the worlds central banks, including the Federal Reserve, are coming and will be the dominant fundamental that supports stock index futures in the long term.


Much of the trade appears to be evening up ahead of the FOMC statement this afternoon.

Japan's exports fell 8.2% on the year last month, which was more than expected. This added to speculation that the central bank of Japan may seek to cut interest rates deeper into negative territory.

Canada's annual inflation rate slowed slightly in August. The consumer price index increased 1.9% on a year-over-year basis in August, which compared with a 2.0% increase rise in the previous month. The market consensus called for a 2.0% gain.


Market participants believe there is a 63% probability that the FOMC will lower its fed funds rate by another 25 basis points at the conclusion of its meeting today. Currently, there is only a 22% probability of another rate cut at the October meeting.

The Federal Reserve lowered its fed funds rate by 25 basis points in July.

In the longer term, higher prices are likely for futures, especially at the long end of the curve, as most major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, are likely to embark on a new round of easier credit policies.


December 19S&P 500

Support 2986.00 Resistance 3016.00

December 19 U.S. Dollar Index

Support 97.640 Resistance 98.200

December 19Euro Currency

Support 1.11030 Resistance 1.11590

December 19Japanese Yen

Support .92800 Resistance .93230

December 19Canadian Dollar

Support .75320 Resistance .75790

December 19Australian Dollar

Support .6837 Resistance .6897

December 19 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds

Support 159^8 Resistance 160^28

December 19Gold

Support 1504.0 Resistance 1521.0

December 19Copper

Support 2.6000 Resistance 2.6500

November 19 Crude Oil

Support 57.23 Resistance 59.88

Contact Alan for more extensive information on these markets at 312.242.7911 or via email at Thank you.

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